"It is important to consider that base-year effect. We're comparing a market well into recovery versus a market that was going through a recession," says Jason Mercer, TREB's senior manager of market analysis. "The second half of 2009 definitely saw a very strong rebound right through December and ... that has continued in the first couple of weeks of January."
Taking a broader perspective, this January's half-month numbers are almost back to the 1,776 sales recorded in the first 15 days of 2008 – which followed the record year of 2007.
"This says that the vigour of the market we have seen over the last several months continues in early 2010. The market does not appear to have let up entering the new year," says Robert Hogue, senior economist at RBC Economics.
The average price for homes sold in the GTA in the first two weeks of January was $395,307. This was up on the average of $332,495 for the same period in 2009. In the first two weeks of 2008, the average value of the sales was $367,574.
"That market a year ago was very well supplied and now things are pretty tight so you're seeing a lot of upward pressure on pricing. We'd expect that to continue until we come into the spring," says Mr. Mercer. "The strong sales growth we saw through the fall and winter will start to prompt more listings, so we'll start to see more staid price growth over the longer term."
However, potential Toronto sellers appear to be hesitating before listing their homes.
"There is very little supply at this point; we would have thought that by now supply would have responded to the stronger demand and the price increase," says Mr. Hogue. "Much stronger demand is there but supply is an issue, it is definitely a tight market now."
Homeowners may still be watching and waiting.
"If you look at past recoveries of the housing market, usually listings are the last shoe to drop," says Mr. Mercer. "Existing homeowners wait to see where the sales trend is going, where the price trend is going, before they list. With sales doing well, with prices continuing to grow, we really do think that is going to prompt an increase in listings as we move into the spring."
Analysts say that the rise in sales and prices cuts across most Toronto neighbourhoods.
"It's pretty widespread in terms of both geography and in terms of type [of housing]," says Mr. Mercer. "People from a lot of different walks of life with a lot of different housing needs are looking to get into home ownership or move around in that market."
The continued enthusiasm for housing may be reflecting the overall improvement in the economy in Toronto, but south of the border, housing starts and building permits numbers were more mixed.
U.S. housing starts were weaker than expected in December, declining 4% from the previous month to reach 557,000 units from 580,000 units. The decline was highest in single-detached construction.
However, building permit approvals experienced a sharp 10.9% month-over-month rise to reach 653,000 units.
"Housing starts are often at the front-line of economic recoveries, given the sector's high sensitivity to monetary easing," notes Sal Guatieri, senior economist, BMO Capital Markets. "But this time is different - with the sector only standing its ground after a three-year-long massive retreat. Housing is more likely to lag than lead this recovery." National Post